07th Jan 2007
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In the spirit of Ed Felten's tech policy predictions on Freedom To Tinker No prescription tramadol online, , I offer my own smaller set of tech and tech policy predictions. Some of these are a bit tongue-in-cheek, and some are long shots, but we'll find out one year from now, if this InterWebNet thing is still around. Click for more:
2007 predictions:
- Record companies will finally bet on fingerprinting as their primary DRM technology.
Fingerprinting means that each music file is watermarked to trace the original buyer. Record companies have been reluctant to use fingerprinting because (a) CDs are identical as printed, (b) they'd rather prevent copying than trace it after the fact, and (c) inertia.
However, fingerprinting is the only DRM technology that doesn't inconvenience people. Secure CDs are a pain in the rear end, and "secure" music files prohibit normal use and interoperability, no prescription tramadol online. Fingerprinting, on the other hand, is invisible to the user, What Is Tramadol 377.
So for example, instead of selling you a CD that gives you a hard time, record companies will sell you a multi-session CD that happily displays a menu offering to upload the CD tracks to your computer in popular formats. Then the menu program can fingerprint the music on the fly with the date, computer name, IP etc.
- Non-prediction: 2007 will see no DRM security screwup worse than the rootkit fiasco, and no privacy disaster worse than the AOL leak.
This is not because those events can't be out-done, but because companies will be more cognizant of the legal liability of monitoring customers, exerting control, and possessing private data---and they will employ more explicit policies to stay on the right side of the hypothesized "privacy ceiling."
- Blog spam and splogs/ad farms will become so sophisticated that they begin to cross the line into useful automated content.
We have seen decoy blogs (splogs) with comments and articles lifted from other blogs---intended to harvest ad revenue, or promote specific web sites. No prescription tramadol online, I found about these first-hand when some of my own comments were copied verbatim into a decoy blog. Description Tramadol, There are some remedies to lifting, since you can always place a searchable identifier in a blog post or comment. However, automated and commonplace remedies will breed countermeasures: so expect splog articles and comments to be filtered to change names, break high-entropy strings, and even rephrase text. Eventually they will come close to simulating authentic blogs, at least the low-content variety that just link around with minor commentary.
- Some band(s) will gain media attention by using only long-expired public-domain melodies for composing their songs---for the sole reason of avoiding lawsuits.
One constant fear among creative types is accidentally infringing on some existing work---writing a sci-fi novel only to find that the whole concept was already done, and worse yet your main character's name matches someone else's, even though you tried with all your might to make it a random alien collection of Vs Xs and Zs, like "Verizon from Planet Xanax." Or, you develop a cutting-edge software product that falls under someone's patent. Or patents, no prescription tramadol online. Held by a company whose business model is suing you, 150 Tramadol.
But songwriters have an out: there is a huge body of traditional melodies, many of which are provably public-domain because they are published in old collections (for example, O'Neill's Music of Ireland (1903) which contains 1,850 tunes of which you've probably heard maybe less than 50.) There is a wealth of obscure, complex, and beautiful tunes, easily accessible, easily mined for a song.
Some bands already write new songs to traditional melodies. Flogging Molly's song "Salty Dog", for example, is written to the tune of the Kesh Jig. No prescription tramadol online, But here we predict that someone will exclusively use provably public-domain melodies for the specific reason of avoiding any risk of accidental plagiarism or legal sabre-rattling. Tramadol During Pregnancy, Of course, what happens when the second punk band writes a song to the tune of the Kesh Jig. This will eventually raise issues about recapture of public-domain works.
- Some geniuses will write a Firefox extension to let parts of YouOS run locally, sort of negating the whole point.
Some other people will start writing a dedicated YouOS-centric browser that uses your machine's local GUI API to render the YouOS windows quickly. At some point it will be jokingly renamed "X-Windows," and we will all have a big laugh before going back to our offices to write papers in LaTeX using vi and xfig.
- The content industry will try to compel a search engine or online store to hand over innocuous transaction data---because they can data mine it for evidence of infringement.
A hypothetical example cited in the "privacy ceiling" paper by Janice Tsai, Lorrie Cranor and myself is iTunes and GraceNote correctly identifying music tracks that you are playing locally. If GraceNote is serving requests to identify music tracks, they can probably determine from successive queries if someone is playing a whole CD, a mix CD, or even something that was never legal to distribute, like the Grey Album, Ultram Withdrawal Symtoms. As the paper points out, Apple is potentially liable for vicarious infringement if they can deduce infringement from queries.
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In the spirit of Ed Felten's tech policy predictions on Freedom To Tinker No prescription tramadol online, , I offer my own smaller set of tech and tech policy predictions. Some of these are a bit tongue-in-cheek, and some are long shots, but we'll find out one year from now, if this InterWebNet thing is still around. Click for more:
2007 predictions:
- Record companies will finally bet on fingerprinting as their primary DRM technology.
Fingerprinting means that each music file is watermarked to trace the original buyer. Record companies have been reluctant to use fingerprinting because (a) CDs are identical as printed, (b) they'd rather prevent copying than trace it after the fact, and (c) inertia.
However, fingerprinting is the only DRM technology that doesn't inconvenience people. Secure CDs are a pain in the rear end, and "secure" music files prohibit normal use and interoperability, no prescription tramadol online. Fingerprinting, on the other hand, is invisible to the user, What Is Tramadol 377.
So for example, instead of selling you a CD that gives you a hard time, record companies will sell you a multi-session CD that happily displays a menu offering to upload the CD tracks to your computer in popular formats. Then the menu program can fingerprint the music on the fly with the date, computer name, IP etc.
- Non-prediction: 2007 will see no DRM security screwup worse than the rootkit fiasco, and no privacy disaster worse than the AOL leak.
This is not because those events can't be out-done, but because companies will be more cognizant of the legal liability of monitoring customers, exerting control, and possessing private data---and they will employ more explicit policies to stay on the right side of the hypothesized "privacy ceiling."
- Blog spam and splogs/ad farms will become so sophisticated that they begin to cross the line into useful automated content.
We have seen decoy blogs (splogs) with comments and articles lifted from other blogs---intended to harvest ad revenue, or promote specific web sites. No prescription tramadol online, I found about these first-hand when some of my own comments were copied verbatim into a decoy blog. Description Tramadol, There are some remedies to lifting, since you can always place a searchable identifier in a blog post or comment. However, automated and commonplace remedies will breed countermeasures: so expect splog articles and comments to be filtered to change names, break high-entropy strings, and even rephrase text. Eventually they will come close to simulating authentic blogs, at least the low-content variety that just link around with minor commentary.
- Some band(s) will gain media attention by using only long-expired public-domain melodies for composing their songs---for the sole reason of avoiding lawsuits.
One constant fear among creative types is accidentally infringing on some existing work---writing a sci-fi novel only to find that the whole concept was already done, and worse yet your main character's name matches someone else's, even though you tried with all your might to make it a random alien collection of Vs Xs and Zs, like "Verizon from Planet Xanax." Or, you develop a cutting-edge software product that falls under someone's patent. Or patents, no prescription tramadol online. Held by a company whose business model is suing you, 150 Tramadol.
But songwriters have an out: there is a huge body of traditional melodies, many of which are provably public-domain because they are published in old collections (for example, O'Neill's Music of Ireland (1903) which contains 1,850 tunes of which you've probably heard maybe less than 50.) There is a wealth of obscure, complex, and beautiful tunes, easily accessible, easily mined for a song.
Some bands already write new songs to traditional melodies. Flogging Molly's song "Salty Dog", for example, is written to the tune of the Kesh Jig. No prescription tramadol online, But here we predict that someone will exclusively use provably public-domain melodies for the specific reason of avoiding any risk of accidental plagiarism or legal sabre-rattling. Tramadol During Pregnancy, Of course, what happens when the second punk band writes a song to the tune of the Kesh Jig. This will eventually raise issues about recapture of public-domain works.
- Some geniuses will write a Firefox extension to let parts of YouOS run locally, sort of negating the whole point.
Some other people will start writing a dedicated YouOS-centric browser that uses your machine's local GUI API to render the YouOS windows quickly. At some point it will be jokingly renamed "X-Windows," and we will all have a big laugh before going back to our offices to write papers in LaTeX using vi and xfig.
- The content industry will try to compel a search engine or online store to hand over innocuous transaction data---because they can data mine it for evidence of infringement.
A hypothetical example cited in the "privacy ceiling" paper by Janice Tsai, Lorrie Cranor and myself is iTunes and GraceNote correctly identifying music tracks that you are playing locally. If GraceNote is serving requests to identify music tracks, they can probably determine from successive queries if someone is playing a whole CD, a mix CD, or even something that was never legal to distribute, like the Grey Album, Ultram Withdrawal Symtoms. As the paper points out, Apple is potentially liable for vicarious infringement if they can deduce infringement from queries.
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